La Crosse, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

245
FXUS63 KARX 020839
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
239 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snowfall chances (30%) in northeast Iowa tonight. Low
  light snow chances (<10%) Wednesday morning west of the
  Mississippi River Valley. Similarly low (20-30%) light
  snowfall chances Thursday morning through Friday morning north
  of Interstate 90 in Wisconsin.

- Warmer than normal temperatures Thursday fluctuate some to
  start the weekend, returning to above normal through the
  weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Light Snow Grazes Northeast Iowa Tonight:

An open wave on early morning upper level GOES WV imagery
progresses southeast along northwest flow, grazing snowfall
chances (<20%) for the southwestern half of the forecast area,
primarily in northeast Iowa locally. Northeastern extent of
snowfall band remains forecast detail to remain cognizant of,
dependent on lingering low level dry air limiting widespread
saturation and availability of lingering residual moisture.
Regardless, minimum overall amounts expected (<0.5").

Light snowfall probabilities plummet as they approach the
forecast area from the northwest on Wednesday morning (LREF) due
to separation in the longer synoptic wave; northern stream well
to the northeast of the forecast area and southern stream well
to the southwest. Additional precipitation chances Thursday
morning through Friday morning differ between and within LREF
members due to vast differences in nature of an extratropical
cyclone sagging southeast over the eastern Great Lakes.
Regardless, highest local chances remain north of Interstate 90
in Wisconsin. Other than a select few members of the GEPS that
suggest a slight warm nose in central Wisconsin causing freezing
rain chances, mostly snow with a mix of rain is expected.

Warmer Thursday & Most Of The Weekend:

Besides the GEFS (02.00Z), higher LREF confidence (70-100%) for
above normal 2 meter temperatures come Thursday. Differences in
phasing and deepening of a subsequent extratropical cyclone
over the eastern Great Lakes through Friday into the early
weekend causes fluctuations in confidence come Saturday. While
the GEFS remains adamant for 0% probabilities, the GEPS and EPS
suggest 30-50% probabilities for near normal high temperatures
Saturday as the wave and accompanying cold tongue slide
southeast. This inter-ensemble member disagreement persists
into next week as the GEFS keeps probabilities below 10% until
Tuesday while the GEPS and EPS only increase from 40-60%
probabilities on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Freezing drizzle continues to move through western Wisconsin.
This drizzle should move out of western Wisconsin between 08Z
and 10Z. MVFR to IFR CIGS and visibilities accompany this
freezing drizzle. After the drizzle moves out of an area, MVFR
CIGS linger for a few hours before lifting above MVFR criteria.
Clouds are expected to scatter out mid to late Monday morning
before becoming BKN to OVC later Monday afternoon into the
evening. Light southwesterly winds in western Wisconsin continue
to shift to the northwest as a cold front moves through the
area. These northwest winds will continue through the rest of
the TAF period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...Cecava